As we enter the early weeks of November, 2024 is drawing to a close. While you’re looking forward to the upcoming holiday break, we want to share some crucial housing market trends you should examine closely to avoid missing out on great opportunities.
Housing Market Price
According to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index (HVI), last month’s modest 0.3% increase marks the 21st consecutive month of growth since the market recovery began in February last year.
While larger cities like Sydney and Melbourne have seen price declines, balancing out the overall market value, mid-sized cities such as Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane have consequently experienced price gains in recent months.
According to CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index released on November 1, Perth led the way with the largest increase of 1.4%, followed by Adelaide (1.1%), Hobart (0.8%), and Brisbane (0.7%). In contrast, Sydney (-0.1%), Melbourne (-0.2%), Canberra (-0.3%), and Darwin (-1.0%) experienced minor declines.
According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, buyers are gravitating towards affordable markets due to limited borrowing capacity and affordability constraints. Lower-priced market segments have demonstrated stronger or more stable growth compared to their higher-priced counterparts across all capital cities—with Canberra being the sole exception.
Australia Housing Demand
A recent article by Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Macro Business Fund and Macro Business Super, highlights a roundtable discussion held by the Business Council of Australia and The Australian Financial Review. The discussion focused on strategies to address Australia’s housing shortage.
During the discussion, Tony Lombardo, CEO of Lend Lease Group, pointed out that there aren’t enough skilled tradespeople to meet the housing demand. According to Lombardo, this shortage is partly due to many young people being encouraged to pursue university education rather than trades.
It’s becoming increasingly evident that Australia’s housing shortage will persist for the foreseeable future, given the challenging conditions facing the construction industry. High interest rates have made borrowing more expensive for both builders and buyers, naturally dampening market activity.
Exacerbating these issues is the fierce competition for resources within the industry. With government projects in full swing, builders face shortages of both labor and materials, driving costs even higher. Private builders struggle to compete when public infrastructure projects absorb a significant portion of available resources.
In this challenging environment, it’s no wonder that many smaller building companies are shutting down. Those still operating grapple with razor-thin profit margins and escalating costs. Without a major policy shift to address these pressures, housing supply is likely to remain inadequate, trapping the market in a cycle of high demand and limited availability. Consequently, for everyday Australians, the dream of affordable housing slips further out of reach.
Australia’s Rental Market
On a separate update by Onselen, he cited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) pointing out the increase on the Australian housing value eases the rental crisis in the country.
The RBA SoMP stated “Population growth over the tightening phase has contributed to increased demand for housing, which (combined with a lack of new supply) has led to strong growth in housing prices.”
Strong population growth, driven by high immigration rates, has increased housing demand. This surge has also highlighted the need for more rental properties, prompting some developers and investors to shift their focus from sales to creating rental units.
While limited housing supply remains a barrier to affordability, developers are increasingly recognizing the long-term rental demand and beginning to address it. Some areas are seeing the first signs of new housing projects as the need for rentals reaches a critical level.
This focus on increasing rental supply, combined with strong government support for affordable housing initiatives, could slowly help ease the pressure in the rental market.
The challenge will be sustaining this momentum while addressing construction costs and high interest rates. But if Australia can keep growing its rental stock to match population growth, renters may finally see some relief in a market that has been tight for far too long.
In conclusion, while Australia’s housing market faces significant challenges, including high construction costs, limited supply, and competition for resources, there are signs that the situation may be gradually improving.
Strong population growth continues to fuel demand, particularly in rental markets, which has prompted increased attention on expanding housing supply. Although rising interest rates and inflation in building costs have made it difficult to see a quick fix, the growing focus on affordable housing development and migration-related demand offers hope for easing the rental crisis.
As the market continues to adapt, a balanced approach—encouraging investment in both housing and rental properties, addressing affordability challenges, and ensuring the supply of skilled labor—will be key to long-term stability. With careful attention to these factors, Australia’s housing and rental markets could start to shift towards a more sustainable future, providing relief for both buyers and renters alike.
As the housing market continues to evolve, staying informed and proactive is key. Whether you’re a buyer, renter, or investor, now is the time to understand the trends shaping the future of housing in Australia. Stay ahead of the curve—explore opportunities, make smart decisions, and secure your place in this changing market today.
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